Future of the Liberal World Order
The Liberal World Order and the Future of Transatlanticism: Tensions, Debates and Critiques
The liberal world order and the transatlantic partnership that underpins it stand today at a crossroads marked by profound tension, introspection, and uncertainty. Structural strains, domestic political divergences, and competing global ambitions have long suggested a deeper and potentially enduring erosion of the transatlantic bond. The Russia-Ukraine War only briefly galvanized transatlantic unity. The increasingly illiberal leadership of President Donald Trump has amplified pre-existing divisions, further diminishing the role of Western leadership in maintaining the liberal world order.
Read More about The Liberal World Order and the Future of Transatlanticism: Tensions, Debates and CritiquesIn this note, I aim to do two things. First, to get a sense of how robust political support for liberal democracy is (or is not) in Europe. And second, to gauge to what extent liberal democracy is tied up with the European Union. My evidence is drawn mostly from the most recent 2024 CHES survey on the positioning of political parties across Europe (Rovny et al. 2025).
Read More about Europe’s Hard Right and Constraints on Liberal DemocracyThe Liberal World Order and the Future of Transatlanticism: Tensions, Debates and Critiques
In the institutional systems of nation-states, the liberal political order is founded on the principle of limiting all forms of power and their diffusion of political power across several institutions, thereby ensuring the protection of individual and group freedoms. The way in which this is achieved is through the rule of law and the separation of powers (sometimes referred to as “checks-and-balances”). Central to this liberal vision within the boundaries of the sovereign state is the idea that no actor, not even majoritarian forces, stands above the law. The vision does not deny conflict, but rules allow for the pacification and routinization of conflict.
Read More about The Liberal World Order and the Future of Transatlanticism: Tensions, Debates and CritiquesVulnerability and Precarity in a Post-Liberal Order: Lessons from Ukraine
Without question, the Russian invasion is the most direct cause of Ukraine’s inability to safeguard its own future as a sovereign country, aligned with Europe, with a free and open society. That said, a second dynamic undermines Ukraine’s ability to defend its full sovereignty stemming from profound shifts in Washington. Under the Trump regime, America’s commitment to political and economic liberalism is being hollowed out both domestically and internationally
Read More about Vulnerability and Precarity in a Post-Liberal Order: Lessons from Ukraine“Small” states historically have been central to upholding and legitimizing the liberal international order – often in the face of opposition of the world’s great powers. But they also reveal a longstanding paradox in this international order – no state engaged this order can be defined as wholly “liberal.”
Read More about Small States and the Liberal World OrderElaborating on ideas of Ikenberry and Owen, I consider the impact of the Russo-Ukrainian war on the transatlantic relationship and its foreseeable repercussions for the international order. By advancing the polemos argument, I suggest one might expect some re-crystallization of the liberal alliance, the Trump card notwithstanding.
Read More about The Transatlantic Order and the Russo-Ukrainian War: A Polemos Argument